120 Fahrenheit: 2010 Expansion Draft
October 29th, 2009 . 4:26 pm . By: Buzz CarrickThe expansion draft for the 2010 Philadelphia Union will almost certainly take place on the Friday following MLS Cup. There will be a window that week to make trades then a freeze one day before the expansion draft. Since the 2009 season is over for FCD it makes sense to now look at who might get protected. One major change that I’ve heard from FCD sources, there is no foreign player protection limit this time. You can expose or protect as many as you like. Based on previous years we can assume the following… 1. Each team protects 11 players, but can only lose one of the unprotected players. 2. DPs are… never mind. FCD has no DP. 3. GAs are automatically protected and don’t count toward the 11. Anyone being graduated will be moved up prior to the expansion draft. FCD doesn’t have anyone who is obvious to be graduated. Guarda is most likely based on age, Shea and Avila are possible on playing time, but are unlikely. As of now Ga Auto protects: Anthony Wallace, Brek Shea, Josh Lambo, Eric Avila, Bruno Guarda, Peri Marosevic, and Bryan Leyva. So who will FCD protect? Cheap, young, non-expendability, and high value are all important. Large contracts, older players, and replaceable players are all exposable. Here’s my take on what I think coach Hyndman will do. FCD Hypothetical Protected List1. Jeff Cunningham – FCD’s official MVP. On one level he has lots of the things that make a player riskable: he’s older, he’s got a big contract, might not even want to play somewhere else. So if he were exposed would he get picked? Almost certainly. 2. David Ferreira - A no brainer. You might even want to try and buy his contract from CAP. 3. Dax McCarty – MVP for me, he’s out of contract. Re-signing him in priority one. You have to protect him or he’s gone. 4. Ugo Ihemelu – He’s Hyndman’s guy, not going anywhere. Cheaper and more experienced than many others. 5. Goerge John - Hyndman’s draft pick and first choice when healthy. 6. Heath Pearce - He just got here, he’s a US International. Again an easy one. 7. Dari Sala - Hyndman loves him some Dario. He’s got a good value contract for a top half of the league keeper. 8. Jair Benitez - Looks like the left back for 2010, but Heath Pearce is still around… Still he’s good enough to be kept. 9. Marvin Chavez - Not a starter, yet. He’s new and has potential. Hyndman talked about needing to get him on the field more. To much resume to be risked. 10. Kyle Davies - Why him? Potential, upside… and George John so far is injury prone. This kid is to good, if you expose him he’s high risk to be taken. 11. Atiba Harris - This is the flex position. If Shea or Avila are exposed they will take this spot and Harris will be odd man out. I’m going with Harris over names below cause he’s fast and young’ish. He really helped balance the midfield. Chavez could play right mid, so Harris could be exposed if some other need arises. Hypothetical Exposed ListSo who does that leave and why expose them? Dave van den Bergh – He had a great season and finished second in MLS in assists. But he’ll turn 34 next year. He played every game this season, how long will he hold up? He also has the second largest FCD contract and engineered a trade to Dallas once already. Would he retire rather than play in Philly? So he’s risked. Daniel Hernandez – A massive part of the late season surge. He’s Hyndman’s boy and may be a captain candidate. Yet from his own mouth he also wouldn’t mind going back to Mexico, is in his 30s, and probably isn’t interested in Philly. He would be a risky pick by the Union. Therefore he’s risked here. Ray Burse – A fine keeper with upside. Still young in keeper terms. There’s just not room for him to be protected. Pablo Ricchetti - Turned in the armband, won’t play here again without some miracle. Is he worth protecting to try and trade? Maybe. Worth more than protecting Harris some other name above him? Probably not. How about a pre-draft trade and don’t-pick-anyone-else deal? André Rocha - A year ago he was a easy protection call. Still has the talent to be MLS Best XI, but the heart and mind are not in it. Actions and play demonstrate he doesn’t want to be in MLS. I’ll be shocked if FCD doesn’t send him back to CAP. Blake Wagner – A possible Union grab. At one point was good enough to start for this team, but dipped in 2009. Occasionally makes poor decisions passing from the back that hurt his team. He’s at least third choice at LB now, maybe more. Still quite young. Daniel Torres - Performance this year just wasn’t up to grade and he’s getting way over paid for a journeyman back up. Missed 18 games via injury. No one will pick him and FCD might waive him anyway. Steve Purdy – I still see upside here, but had a disaster of an 09 with a lingering, and undiagnosed, tendonitis injury in his knee. Not enough value to be worth covering up. Bruno Guarda - He’s one of Hyndman’s guys. But if he gets promoted he will not be protected. I only list him as he’s the most likely of the Gas to be promoted. So how’s your list compare. 26 Comments Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI Leave a comment |
Buzz, your analysis is right on the button to my mind (what there is left of it).
The easy way out, to my mind, is just expose Richetti, who I think would be drafted.
Philadelphia Bunions would be stupid to not work a “dont pick another of our players trade” in xchange for Ricchetti.
Why would anyone prioritize a malcontent who feels he’s underpaid, who has limited range and is on the wrong side of 30?
I don’t see anyone trading for Richetti, nor do I see him being picked in the expansion. He’s strictly free agent material.
Wise expansion drafters choose players based on value (either immediate for trades or long term as part of their team).
Dax will not be protected unless he signs a post dated deal prior to the draft right after MLS Cup. Did we and SJ learn nothing from the goodson situation a couple of years ago. Dax is in the exact same boat and he will find euro interest at a lower league to start. I’m sure he noticed Goodson’s rapid rise in BB’s eyes since leaving MLS.
Maybe I didn’t watch enough games – but I didn’t see really anything out of Chavez . . I also think we should trade Richetti to one of the teams with the top allocations so we can acquire Lee
Buzz,
Thank you very much for the article.
No matter how you slice it, players of value will be exposed.
As I’ve said in other comments sections, I’d like to see Dallas trade away players and draft picks (FCD doesn’t need more prospects, unless someone truly blows them away) to move up in allocation and/or a don’t pick another of our players agreement. Players I’d see as most expendable that you might get something for are:
Richetti (I think he’s strong enough that despite the temper tantrum and SH’s we-are-moving-him announcement. he still has some value)
Rocha (if soccer is like other sports, there’s always a coach or GM that thinks they are the one to fix a talented idiot)
Chavez/Harris or Pearce/Benitez (only if one clearly beats the other out, and acquisitions are in the wings that would give more cover to those positions. For example, doesn’t Nguyen play right mid like Harris and Chavez?)
I doubt Lee comes back anytime soon, he loves Vietnam and his club is a sister club to Arsenal. He’s on the fast track to England if he stays where he is and keeps his play up.
“…his club is a sister club to Arsenal. He’s on the fast track to England…”
Funniest post ever.
Lee Nguyen has about as much of a chance at playing in England as I do at farting a diamond.
Richetti doesnt strike me as a Novak-type player. this may be a bit of an afterthought, but i think Burse is the one that’s gone. Philly will sign a veteran keeper, but Ray comes cheap and has MLS experience and is from that area (kinda). He looks like a good choice for the Union if they take someone from Dallas.
Ray is from Kentucky. Prospect, KY (or Louisville) is about 700 miles from Philadelphia and about 800 miles from Dallas. Not exactly home for RB Jr.
One question about Rocha’s situation. Since he is on loan from CAP, does he basically have a no trade clause? As far as I remember, if a player has a no trade clause they HAVE to be protected. I could be wrong on that though.
Would not surprise me if Rocha was already back in Brazil before the expansion draft.
“…his club is a sister club to Arsenal. He’s on the fast track to England…”
By that logic, are Nick Rimando and Robbie Findley on the fast track for Spain? After all, RSL has a “partenership” with Real Madrid.
Buzz, you said that Hernandez is a captain candidate for next year. More SMU favortism? Sala stepped up in a major way after Ricchetti quit and Bus Coach is now going to take the armband away and give it to one of his cuddleboys? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
Minn, the captain is up for decision every year. Sala will be a strong candidate. But so will Hernandez if he stays.
Both men are SH supporters in the locker room, both have a ton of experience. Both are worthy.
And I am sure there are others.
Rocha wont be on that list because he contract with FC dallas is over by the end of November and he is going back to CAP..
I do believe Dax will re-sign with Dallas if they pay him 100k + otherwise he will look somewhere else.
Daniel should also be resigned.. and leaving DVDB unprotected would be one of the best choices SH would do… HE is too old and i just dont like his lack of speed to be a winger…
Also Guarda is a GA till Dec 2010, he is even in the squad that will go to Madrid in december so he will be protected.
The chance Dax won’t be protected is just slightly above absolute zero. Anyone saying otherwise either isn’t paying attention or doesn’t have the capacity to.
Whether he re-signs or not is a different matter. But it make no sense for the team to not at least protect him unless he does what Goodson did – tell the team that he wasn’t coming back no matter the offer – and that doesn’t appear to be in the cards right now, and it would be very out of the ordinary for something to develop like that in the next two weeks.
When did Goodson say he wouldn’t come back no matter what? Clearly he didn’t say that or SJ wouldn’t have drafted him. MLS obviuosly made a some limited effort to sign he but just didn’t get it done.
Buzz do the SI’s have to be protected? ZBecause if that is the case we would either have to release or protect Rocha and Torres.
I could not remember from last year if they had to be protected.
Goodson told FCD that he wanted to try Europe and wasnt going to re-sign. Thats the amin reason he was left unproctected by FCD in that expansion draft. SJ took him with the thought that they could convince him to stay if he didnt get a good offer overseas. Goodson chose Scandinavia over SJ.
SteveToro, i thoguh Ray was from further eastern KY and knew he went to Ohio St, which is a lot closer to Philly than Dallas is. Needless to say, i didnt do the math, but Philly, KY, and Ohio all have more snow than TX, so he’ll feel more at home as a potential starting keeper than as backup to Dario for another year.
Correct – According to Buzz and other sources, Goodson told *FCD* he wanted Europe money/had offers, etc. SJ didn’t know that and drafted him.
That ought to be a lesson every expansion team keeps in mind.
Dallas and SJ both knew the story and both tried to low ball Goodson and said good bye to all. But we can all still see him in a couple of weeks playing for the USMNT.
Has a goalie ever been taken in an expansion draft? Usually there are lots available. I wouldn’t protect Sala. He’s an SI, isn’t he? I don’t think Philly would take him.
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If they were smart they would draft a proven defender, Rich Martinez out of Hofstra, played for Puerto Ricos world cup team, a lock down defender!!! he’s all CAA conference three years in a row & all-american hon.mention 2009. also made pdl all-confernce team… Also probably he best overall athelete in the draft