Comments on: A Miracle Save? Not Yet.

By: AggieCat

AggieCat — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:59:35 +0000

Lastly, its DC we have to save our rooting mojo for. We win, they lose, we are in like Flynn.

A Revs loss, not so much, cause we could still get left in the water (even with a victory against Seattle) if both the Rapids and United win.

By: AggieCat

AggieCat — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:30:18 +0000

After going through all the possibiliites (6,561 of them to be exact), Dallas doesn’t make it in without at least a tie. We can make it in with a tie in about 21% of the situations, and we can make it in with a win in about 87% of the situations. I say about, cause there are some scenarios where goal differential (namely with the Fire and Rapids) play out. All this of course assumes every case is equally likely (win, lose or draw) in every game.

/nerd off

By: AggieCat

AggieCat — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:14:14 +0000

El Andy,

Remember teams could still tie. Yes, there are even scenarios where Dallas could slip in even if they tie the Sounders…

By: Harry

Harry — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:12:07 +0000

Because they could LOSE and stay at 40, and one or more of the 39pt teams could TIE and also be at 40.

By: El Andy

El Andy — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:46:12 +0000

True, I give up, not enough time to do this justice; curious why Colorado is included in any of the tiebreakers, they mathematically can’t get to 42 points.

Oh well, let’s win and worry about it then

By: Harry

Harry — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:18:45 +0000

Haha, thanks. I just wanted to make sure we all do the math right. It’s a pretty complex deal when you have to account for any number of teams being inside OR outside of a tie.

It would be heartbreaking if a bunch of Dallas fans were like: “WOOHOO WE’RE IN THE PLAYOFFS” when we weren’t due to the multitude of possibilities regarding points and what matchups go into tiebreakers. I think you’re right about the 1v1’s we have the upper hand on a lot of those due to Goal Differential… (quite a few 1/1 W/L Records) But when there are 3 or more teams, depending on who they are, I think the favor tips towards some of the other opponents’ favors. Like the Dallas, DC, NE tie? Wouldn’t that be dumb if DC and Dallas lose their spot due to a tie with NE? lol. I’m just hoping that it all works out in our favor.

By: Barefoot

Barefoot — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:33:03 +0000

Harry: I like it. Agrees 100% with what I said in too many words.

Adding to the mix:
(Teams-in-tie-breaker: Winner)
Dallas,DC: DC
Dallas,TFC: Dallas
Dallas,NE: Dallas
Dallas,Chi: Dallas

By: Barefoot

Barefoot — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:24:42 +0000

El Andy: I think you meant CHI and DC have 12 points each (not TFC). But as you note, those 12 points is over 9 games whereas FCD’s 11 is over 8. That is why the tiebreaker is based on Pts/Gm. And on Pts/Gm FCD advances.

By: Harry

Harry — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:40:19 +0000

Here’s how the tiebreakers match up according to an NER blog I found… Barring any miscalculations on his part, (totally easy to do) you can derive almost all of the scenarios with it due to the “reverts to step 1″ note…

(Teams-in-tie-breaker: Winner)

Chicago-Dallas-New England: Dallas

Colorado-Salt Lake-New England: Salt Lake

Dallas-D.C. -New England: New England

Dallas-New England-Toronto: Dallas

D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto

Chicago-Dallas-D.C.-New England: D.C.

Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-New England: Goal Difference between RSL and FCD

Colorado-Salt Lake-D.C.-New England: Salt Lake

Colorado-Salt Lake-New England-Toronto: Toronto

FC Dallas-D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto

Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-D.C.-New England: Colorado

Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto

By: Harry

Harry — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:57:53 +0000

Yes:

“NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.”