A Miracle Save? Not Yet.
October 16th, 2009 . 5:44 pm . By: Buzz CarrickYou may recall that on June 22nd I called the season as being over. FCD had a stretch run of 5 of 6 games at home and they didn’t get to the total I had said they needed, which was to win 3+ of the six. At the end of that run I said…
Since that seemed improbable, perhaps impossible, I called the season over. Shockingly, in perhaps one of the biggest and most improbable turn arounds in league history, sparked by the hottest streak in league history by Jeff Cunningham, FCD ripped off 7-5-2 through 14 games. If FCD win out their last two game (vs Col, at Sea) they will be 9-5-2. That’s exactly two ties better than the 9-7-0 mark I thought extraordinarily improbably if not impossible, i.e. beating the 9-7-0 mark that would get FCD to the hypothetical 40 points. So the crazy is happening and FCD just might pull the impossible off. Unfortunately winning out won’t actually get it done because the situation has gotten worse that it was. 40 points isn’t going to do it, 42 only might do it. As I also mentioned at the time…
That’s still true, well except LA, there’s no catching LA. If FCD wins out, RSL, TFC, DC United, New England, and now Seattle (instead of LA) could all still be in the way. FCD will need a combination of things to happen including multiple losses by New England and some more losing by RSL and others. The possible sceneries are too many to break them all down. But suffice it to say, even with FCD blowing past the improbable 9-7-0 mark and hitting the 9-5-2, odds are still against them on getting in. So what I said then is still true. The run of all runs, which FCD pulled off, still isn’t enough. That 5 of 6 at home could have saved the season. FCD blew it then and they are paying for it now. Well, that and starting the year 1-6-1. 29 Comments Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI Leave a comment |
Sports club stats says that if they pull it off, they’ve a 98% shot at it… while it’s still a “might”, it’s a pretty heavy “might.”
To me the season is in 3 parts:
1-6-1 to start; 6-6-5 in the doldrums; 3-0-0 in current streak & having to go to 5-0-0 to have any chance at the playoffs.
Before the 3 game winning streak they were still a pretty bad 7-12-6. What gives us hope is not just 3 wins in a row, but the way they’re playing.
By the way, did you know FCD is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games! They finally got some recent points on the road with with at LA & SJ.
The 1-6-1 start killed us, the streak of games Buzz mentioned killed us, the recent losses at NYRB & KC killed us. But we’re not quite dead!
Really?
NE is done. I’ll be shocked if they get to 42 points.
TFC is doing their 2008 FCD impersonation – tons of opportunities against teams they should beat, coming up short.
Colorado has to get probably a win either at Dallas or at RSL.
DC? You’re seriously talking about DC? They are so beat up – physically and mentally – that there is no way they get ahead of Dallas.
Of course, this assumes Dallas wins at Seattle, which is a huge game.
But if Dallas gets to 42, barring something really against type at this point, they are most likely in.
That being said, winning both games isn’t going to be easy. In fact, winning tomorrow is going to be incredibly difficult.
If FCD wins out, they’re almost surely in. I was looking at the playoffs earlier this week. NE plays Chicago this weekend. If they draw, then the best NE can hope for is to tie Dallas, and Dallas hold the tie-breaker. if NE wins, then both chicago and NE are at 41 points. NE plays Columbus and Chicago plays Chivas. Since FCD also owns the tie breaker vs. Chicago, a draw in either of those 2 matches would put FCD in ahead of NE.
In fact, if Dallas wins out then the only teams the only team that’s really going to keep them out is DCU. RSL could jump over them, but with RSL and Colorado playing the final day, only 1 of them will finish above a 42-point Dallas. FCD owns tie-breakers agains toronto (as well as NE and Chi) but lose to DC.
And, depending on what happens today, that Seattle spot could be available to Dallas as well…
Guys, its really complicated, due to MLS’s 1st tiebreaker being W-L-T vs other tying teams. And right now, there are 5 of us that could finish at 42, and since any combination of 5 teams could yield different results, its not cut and dry at all. I wish someone would put together a thorough investigation. I know if Chicago, Toronto, and FC Dallas win, while either NE or DC loses, we’re in. If the other 4 lose, we’re also obviously in, but it’s very obscure after that.
Funny you should ask, Nate, I ran through them when I got home last night. It was late, and i’m not saying I didn’t make a mistake, but I checked all 16 scenarios of Toronto, DC, NE, or Chicago winding up tied with Dallas. 4 keep FCD out:
1&2) If TOR, DC, and NE all win, it doesn’t matter what Chicago does, FCD doesn’t make playoffs.
3) Chicago win or draw, DC win, Toronto & NE lose or draw.
4) Chicago win or draw, DC and NE win, Toronto lose or draw
If Colorado loses or draws, I’m pretty sure the only way FCD stays out of the playoffs is if Chicago wins or draws, Toronto Loses, NE and DC win.
Assuming FCD wins, RMH is mistaken:
If TOR, DC, and NE win AND CHI loses, then FCD is in.
If TOR, DC and NE win, CHI gets at least a point AND Colorado fails to get 3 pts, then FCD is in.
Here’s the deal:
-2 WAY TIE-
If Dallas is only tied with one other team for the last remaining playoff spot we hold the tibreaker against anybody but DC. Only way for us to be out in this case is: Colorado Wins, CHI gets at least a point, DC Wins, NE and Toronto fail to get 3 pts.
-3 WAY TIE-
In the case we are tied with 3 teams for either one or 2 playoff spots, we advance except for this one scenario: DC And NE both win, TFC fails to win, and CHI gets at least a point.
-4 WAY TIE-
If Colorado fails to win, we advance in any 4-way tie scenario.
If Colorado wins, we fail to advance if both DC and NE win.
-5 WAY TIE-
We advance in a 5-way tie no matter what.
Here’s the simplest scenario: We win and DC fails to take the full 3, then FCD is in the playoffs no matter what else happens.
You’re right–that is a simple scenario. I still think if TOR, DC, and NE win, and CHI loses, then FCD is out, but there’s a high probability I made an addition error compiling records so I’ll take your word for it.
I’m a moron. We said the same thing, I just didn’t qualify that my first 4 scenarios assumed CO won. My apologies.
So assuming we win, we should have this?
RMH: I think you were decribing the 5 way tie scenario where DC, FCD, NE, and TFC all win while CHI loses. In that case you have to add up the totla poimts for all 5 teams in game between each other and then (and here is where I think you went wrong) divide through by total games payed for each team since CHI and DC played 3 games this season.
If you get the points-per-game statistic then Dallas and CHI finish 1 and 2 with 1.375 and 1.333 pts/game respectively and go through. If COL loses, then either TFC or NE get through at #3 depending on who has the better goal diff between thhose 2.
Nate: I would say yes, if we win we’re almost surely in.
In any case let’s hope we win, TFC wins, DC, NE and COL all lose or tie.
Barefoot–I wasn’t going by points, I was going by win percentage, and even then I was just kind of eyeballing it. I’m sure that’s where I went wrong. Many thanks.
Either I’m reading the tiebreaking rules wrong, or there’s lots of error here?
“…to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points.”
So records for within the CURRENT 39 POINT TIE:
Toronto W/L/T(2/1/3)
NER W/L/T(2/2/2)
DCU W/L/T(2/3/3)
FCD W/L/T(2/3/2)
There should be a lot more scenarios than the ones given… For instance if it’s a 3-way tie for the last spot between FCD, DCU, and NER… We are last. (1-3-1) (2-1-2) (2-1-1) respectively amongst games within that group. I am thinking about continuing my analysis via Excel, but if I am incorrect then I should stop. lol. But if I’m correct I will keep going and post for you guys? Again, if I’m wrong, so be it… But that’s how it reads to me at least.
Oh… But then I guess maybe the Carolina Challenge game between TOR and DCU shouldn’t be in there I bet… Which I had in there because I didn’t pay attention. lol
So then without the Lamar Hunt and Carolina Challenge games I get:
TOR: 2/1/3
FCD: 2/2/2
NER: 2/2/2
DCU: 2/1/3
FCD being above NER due to an equal step 2 against eachother, but a higher total goals for season (Step 3)
Again, I could totally be wrong, but that’s how I read it.
Okay, found another error. The whole resetting thing when 1 team breaks the tie. *sigh* I think I’ll just wait til somebody can explain it better.
Nice site guys. Where you all sit at Home Games?
Do the tiebreakers reset on head to head points if one team breaks that tiebreaker? It’s a pretty important assumption.
I have assumed the tiebreaker is a table of the teams tied, and it does not reset
By my math, I agree with most of what Barefoot says, except the scenario with 5 way tie; if it’s a 5 way tie and Colorado wins, it’s 5 teams gunning for 2 spots. We fall out 3rd in head to head amongst the 5 (11 points, 3-3-2; Toronto and DC both have 12 points at 3-1-2 and 3-0-3, respectively)
The way I see it is this:
5 way tie: In if Colorado doesn’t win
If DC OR NE lose, we’re in no matter what happens
If Toronto loses and Chicago loses: In if Colorado doesn’t win
If Toronto loses and Chicago wins/ties: Out
Go Columbus, KC and Salt Lake
Yes:
“NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.”
Here’s how the tiebreakers match up according to an NER blog I found… Barring any miscalculations on his part, (totally easy to do) you can derive almost all of the scenarios with it due to the “reverts to step 1″ note…
(Teams-in-tie-breaker: Winner)
Chicago-Dallas-New England: Dallas
Colorado-Salt Lake-New England: Salt Lake
Dallas-D.C. -New England: New England
Dallas-New England-Toronto: Dallas
D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto
Chicago-Dallas-D.C.-New England: D.C.
Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-New England: Goal Difference between RSL and FCD
Colorado-Salt Lake-D.C.-New England: Salt Lake
Colorado-Salt Lake-New England-Toronto: Toronto
FC Dallas-D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto
Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-D.C.-New England: Colorado
Colorado-Salt Lake-Dallas-D.C.-New England-Toronto: Toronto
El Andy: I think you meant CHI and DC have 12 points each (not TFC). But as you note, those 12 points is over 9 games whereas FCD’s 11 is over 8. That is why the tiebreaker is based on Pts/Gm. And on Pts/Gm FCD advances.
Harry: I like it. Agrees 100% with what I said in too many words.
Adding to the mix:
(Teams-in-tie-breaker: Winner)
Dallas,DC: DC
Dallas,TFC: Dallas
Dallas,NE: Dallas
Dallas,Chi: Dallas
Haha, thanks. I just wanted to make sure we all do the math right. It’s a pretty complex deal when you have to account for any number of teams being inside OR outside of a tie.
It would be heartbreaking if a bunch of Dallas fans were like: “WOOHOO WE’RE IN THE PLAYOFFS” when we weren’t due to the multitude of possibilities regarding points and what matchups go into tiebreakers. I think you’re right about the 1v1’s we have the upper hand on a lot of those due to Goal Differential… (quite a few 1/1 W/L Records) But when there are 3 or more teams, depending on who they are, I think the favor tips towards some of the other opponents’ favors. Like the Dallas, DC, NE tie? Wouldn’t that be dumb if DC and Dallas lose their spot due to a tie with NE? lol. I’m just hoping that it all works out in our favor.
True, I give up, not enough time to do this justice; curious why Colorado is included in any of the tiebreakers, they mathematically can’t get to 42 points.
Oh well, let’s win and worry about it then
Because they could LOSE and stay at 40, and one or more of the 39pt teams could TIE and also be at 40.
El Andy,
Remember teams could still tie. Yes, there are even scenarios where Dallas could slip in even if they tie the Sounders…
After going through all the possibiliites (6,561 of them to be exact), Dallas doesn’t make it in without at least a tie. We can make it in with a tie in about 21% of the situations, and we can make it in with a win in about 87% of the situations. I say about, cause there are some scenarios where goal differential (namely with the Fire and Rapids) play out. All this of course assumes every case is equally likely (win, lose or draw) in every game.
/nerd off
Lastly, its DC we have to save our rooting mojo for. We win, they lose, we are in like Flynn.
A Revs loss, not so much, cause we could still get left in the water (even with a victory against Seattle) if both the Rapids and United win.