3rd Degree


So You’re Saying There’s a Chance

October 4th, 2009 . 11:55 am . By: Buzz Carrick

Some math dorks over at Sports Club Stats say FCD has a 94.5% chance to make the playoffs if they win out.

at San Jose 10/7

vs Colorado 10/17

at Seattle 10/24

Can it be done?

Let’s be honest it boggles the mind that FCD is even in contention on a mathematical level.





15 Comments

  1. Comment by captincanuck on October 4, 2009 12:46 PM

    The only real question mark is the Seattle game. San Jose isn’t very good and Colorado is beatable especially at PHP where we are 6-0-1 in our last 7.

  2. Comment by twotone on October 4, 2009 12:56 PM

    SJ is beateable, but they’ve seemed to win games they shouldnt be winning the last few weeks. if they dont win, they usually tie.

  3. Comment by Kevin on October 4, 2009 1:24 PM

    If they cannot win these three then they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.

    Should be no reason not to pull this off. Cunningham is hot…maybe we can ride his hot leg…

  4. Comment by Casey C. on October 4, 2009 3:32 PM

    We have every reason to not pull this off. Doesn’t mean we can’t hope.

  5. Comment by Dallas Hammster on October 4, 2009 3:43 PM

    Two word’s folks – Yogi f***in’ Bera.

  6. Comment by Moose McDowell on October 4, 2009 9:45 PM

    Total trap game coming up. There’s only two conditions where I wouldn’t bet on FCD to win: a poor playing surface or an irregular-shaped field. I don’t think FCD has ever won in San Jose, on this field. We beat Seattle the last time we were at Qwest (true, not the same team by a longshot), plus they will be locked in their playoff position by the time we head up there, so they chance they will rest players is high. I think the San Jose game is going to be the toughest one we have left.

  7. Comment by Joey on October 4, 2009 9:56 PM

    I agree with you Moose completely. San Jose is going to be a tough one. We’re missing Harris, possibly DVB, no Rocha as a sub and don’t forget the revenge of little Artie Alvarez. It’s not going to be easy.

  8. Comment by soccerroo on October 4, 2009 10:35 PM

    Sorry just seems like to much of a stretch. You have four teams that need 1 win to put themselves in. and Then two that only need a win and a tie for the final spot. I hope I am wrong but it just seems to unlikely.

  9. Comment by Doug on October 5, 2009 10:57 AM

    Definitely two challenging games in Wednesday and 10-24.

    No Attiba, small field, road game against a team that has been scrappy lately (San Jose hasn’t lost since 8-29).

    If the boys bring it, they can win. But it certainly isn’t an easy game. Hopefully the sting of losing to NY and KC have made that point well enough.

  10. Comment by Eugene on October 5, 2009 12:20 PM

    If ever there was a game for Avila to get his chance to step up, it’s this Saturday against San Jose. I’m hoping for some awesomeness from him.

  11. Comment by Chad on October 5, 2009 2:44 PM

    If Avila socres on Saturday against San Jose, that will be a story. He’ll be the loneliest goal scorer in history.

  12. Comment by Xanthippas on October 5, 2009 3:51 PM

    I know I’m jumping way out on a limb here but…well, does it seem like FCD is gelling right now? And if so, why can’t they be the team the qualifies and enters the playoffs on a bit of a hot streak? I’m not predicting anything but…well, let’s just say I’m feeling better than I was about a month ago. Anybody else?

  13. Comment by soccerroo on October 5, 2009 4:06 PM

    Xanthippas,

    I hope you are not hoping for a Red Bull run. We know what they accomplished this year after that run.

    Iwould love to see the hoops make a fantastic run but I think that would make people think all the problems have been fixed when they have not. I am glad the guys have turned the season around and would be happy with a return to the playoffs but I would rather see things that need fixing continue to get the fixes needed.

  14. Comment by El Andy on October 5, 2009 5:36 PM

    I think the fate of the playoffs rest on 2 or 3 key areas (assuming for this that Seattle beats KC and Chicago gets a win either vs. Chivas or NE; if Seattle loses to KC, it gets a little tougher):

    1) We HAVE to win out. The magic number is 41/42 at a minumum

    2) We need to hope Columbus and/or Chicago gets it done vs. New England. By far the toughest schedule so hopefully that helps

    3) Real Salt Lake has to take points from either Toronto or Colorado. If we beat Colorado, but Colorado beats Real Salt Lake, and Toronto runs the table (including a win vs. Salt Lake), we are out.

    There are a lot of IFs, and we do need help, but there is still a chance.

  15. Comment by saban on October 7, 2009 2:45 PM

    When was the last time FCD raised their level of play and won a crucial road game? They need to do it twice. I’m thinking it’s unlikely. I know it’s possible.

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