Second Half Pain
July 6th, 2009 . 12:19 pm . By: Buzz CarrickDallas season second halves can be painful. Climbing the Ladder is an excellent blog that is almost always about stats and numbers. Frequently fascinating, usually useful, and almost always insightful. Their latest work is about teams improving, or not, from the first half of the season to the second half. Scaryice (the publisher of said blog) broke down every team in every MLS season, that’s 149 team/seasons. It shows what we’ve long know, Dallas usually fades. Here are the 13 Dallas seasons pulled from the larger list at CTL.
Thoughts - In 13 seasons, Dallas has faded 9 times and only improved 3 times, with 1 even season. Dallas averages -0.168 PPG worse from the first half of the season to the second half. That’s the second worst in MLS, only Toronto (and their small sample size of two seasons) has a worse number. - The three seasons FCD improved are 2000 (Dir’s last year), 1997 (Dir’s US Open Cup run), and contrary to popular wisdom… 2008 (last year with Morrow/Hyndman.) - Dallas has no season in the top 40 of improvement. - Five FCD seasons game in a bunch around 100-109, with a 6th at 94. - Dir’s 5 seasons are 5 of the top 7. Only last year (2008 Morrow/Ferruzzi/Hyndman) and 2006 (FCD’s second best season, Clarke) are in the top 5. - Interesting side note, In 2005 Dallas had the worst fade in MLS history -1.25 PPG and Colorado the best at improvement in MLS history with +1.063. Is it any wonder the Rapids beat FCD in the playoffs that year? - One from Scaryice
Conclusions- FCD “usually” has a fade of roughly -.2 PPG. The bunch of 6 seasons in the -.2 region means that’s “normal” fade here. - Given the context of fades, Hyndman was better last year than most people believe. Putting it in the additional context with this years improvement from 1st quarter (4 pts) to second quarter (13 pts) may make for some re-evaluation. - As much as I think Clarke was a great coach and Morrow got shafted, is there something about the European heritage coaches Clarke and Morrow that led to fades? As Scaryice pointed out, 2005, 2007, and 2004 are the worst three fades ever for FCD. 2006 while the second best season in FCD history, was still a fade season. Lack of understanding of the heat perhaps? - It’s not the venue. 04 and start of 05 are Cotton Bowl. End of 05, and 07 are PHP. - We should be looking to what Dir did for clues in how to keep the fade from happening. I have long felt (but could never verify scientifically/statistically) Dir’s teams were fitter than any other coaches here and that he worked them harder on fitness in the spring. Despite the fact I don’t like the 3-5-2, I think it a better formation for the heat. I wonder what else he might have been doing that isn’t as obvious. Certainly I recall the heat being a home field advantage for the Burn back then. - So what am I missing, or more importantly what have the coaches been missing? 11 Comments Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI Leave a comment |
I think fitness is the key. It seems to be the only variable that carries over from season to season. Players change, coaches change, etc. The dedication (or not) to fitness is going to be present in every team, regardless of tactical shape, timeliness (or wisdom) of substitutions, etc.
I’d like to offer a counterpoint to the thought that the heat is an advantage. We’ve had 3 seasons of improved PPG. Look at the starting point for last year though – our first half numbers were lower than most of the second half seasons, even after the decline. We could only go up. so, essentially we’ve had two solid seasons from start to finish. Anyone think last year was solid?
My point is this then – FCD is in the heat all the time. They have to train in the heat and play in the heat. Do the players get used to it? Sure. Does it take a lot out of them? you bet. The other teams? They only have to show up for one game. They’re here for two days, tops. They’re not subject to the weekly wear and tear that comes with practicing in 98+ heat. You’ve mentioned before that almost every coach moves the start time of practice to compensate for the heat. I don’t think the heat is an advantage. If it is I don’t think Dallas has figured out a way to make it an advantage.
Look at the Texas Rangers as another example of the heat not being an advantage. Texas historically fades in the summer as well. Playing 90 games in the heat is a beating.
I recently talked to an old Burn player who was disappointed in how a recent practice he saw went. He said they were in better shape when he played. Are there any nutrisionists who could devise a diet/workout system for the players here? I seem to remember reading that FC Dallas has the hottest average games in the world.
The formation and tactics and undervalued in this discussion. One of the reasons I was so negative on Morrow was his idea of playing in a 4-3-3. Trying to cover the wide midfield of PHP, in the heat of summer, with 3 players vs the other team’s 4 or 5 was a very poor strategic decision. It should have been obvious that playing in such a formation would require too much running and exertion of effort for a team playing in Texas in the summer. Clarke also liked to play long ball and push the pace of the attack. Neither understood the importance of wearing the other team down and utilizing the heat to your advantage.
If Kenny is still here after July 31, I wouldn’t mind seeing a flat 4-4-2 for the rest of the season. It’s time to stop pretending that Kenny is a high target striker and accept him for what he wants to be: a ridiculously large withdrawn striker (who may or may not be able to succeed in a league more talented than MLS).
———–Brek—————-
————–Cooper———–
Vdb—-Ferreira—-Dax—-Avila
Wallace–Davies–Richetti–Moor
———-Sala/Burse———–
Something tells me that this season will be different, but I am still not convinced that it will be enough to get to the playoffs.
Cowtown,
You are benching the guy that just scored two goals in two minutes in favor of the guy who has scored a whooping 4 goals from the run of play in 16 games. Kenny hasn’t been productive this season…..Cunny has when given the chance. I don’t like Cunny…as a person he’s a bit of a jerk…but he’s producing and Kenny isn’t. Thems the facts.
texgator,
Let’s talk again after the Gold Cup. You may well be right, but for now I’m more confident that Cooper’s dip in form can be overcome than that Cunningham will be a consistent contributor.
If Jeff continues to contribute, then Kenny is going to have to win his job back after his Gold Cup vacation. Damn shame that Bradley won’t play him and because of that he’ll lose his starting role. But its no one’s fault but his that he hasn’t produced with all the minutes he’s been getting with FCD.
texgator,
Unless he is injured, KC will be inserted back in the starting lineup upon his return. SH has shown he plays his favorites no matter how good or bad that player is. Examples: last season Guarda, this season Saragosa.
Robert,
That’s true…but I don’t know if we can say for certain that Kenny is one of those favorites. Saragosa and Ellinger had a past, Guarda and Schellas had a past. Cooper he just inherited with no previous inclination towards him. He hasn’t performed to the level he should be, if Cunny continues to produce I can see Schellas going to a 4-4-2 to get them both on the pitch, or just making Kenny sit.
At least, FC Dallas has kept the coach in tact as it appears that they are finding their chemistry.