June 1st, 2009 . 1:29 pm . By: Buzz Carrick

Two wins in three still needed.

You may recall three games ago, I stated FCD needed 3+ wins, probably even 4 wins out of the next 6 games or the season was over.  Having 5 of 6 at home set up the table for a possible run… or killed the season if not.

FCD is 3 games into the 6 game stretch, with 3 more coming at home, and FCD has won 1 and tied 2.  Meaning if FCD wins 2 of the next 3 they will have done what I said needed to be done.  And that was win 3+ games.

As I mentioned in the previous piece, teams need, give or take, 40 points to make the playoffs (i.e. finish top 8).

Thanks to poster Steve for the following…

Right now 8th place (ed note: i.e. in the playoffs) in MLS is averaging 1.33333 points per game (probably a function of all the ties). That would be 40 points over the full season.  For FCD (currently .82 ppg) to reach 40 pts they need to average 1.63 ppg the rest of the way. If they get 6 pts from the next two games, that will be down to a manageable 1.565 ppg.

So if FCD pulls off the 6 points (2 wins) in the next 3 games, they will have gotten 3 wins + 2 ties from the 6 game stretch and be sitting at 15 points with 16 games to play. 

Meaning they would need 25 points out of their last 16.  Or as Steve puts it, 1.353 PPG.  That’s a realistic number if the resurgence continues.  Which means the season could be salvaged.

All of which makes San Jose next weekend a must win, leaving FCD needing to win 1 between Houston and Columbus.

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