120 Fahrenheit: Slamming the Combine
January 9th, 2009 . 10:16 am . By: Buzz CarrickIt’s become quite the thing these days apparently to slam the MLS Combine and say it’s useless. (Funny how it it seem the combine is most frequently slammed by people that don’t go to it?) The latest to do so today is Steven Goff. Ok, he doesn’t really slam it but I wanted to make a point, Goff just tries to bring people back form the edge of hype a bit. But lots of people have been slamming the combine of late. Here’s what Goff says today about the combine…
Now he’s right about that and Kreamalmeyer is a good point. (Although I do of course remember Kreamalmeyer.) A player out of nowhere becoming MVP of the combine cause he scored a few goals shouldn’t make you ga-ga over the guy. What maters more is the entire body of work for the player, their college career, their youth international career, or lack there of. I recall thinking Kreamalmeyer was an average midfielder that really helped himself with his combine. And that is in fact what happened. Lots of people started talking about him as a MLS prospect. I moved him up my rankings based on the amount of talk and interest there was. My rankings do take into account where I think players might get picked and what MLS coaches, as well as other scouts and reporters, seem to be saying and thinking. Kreamalmeyer was in fact picked in the 4th round and was the 7th midfielder taken (by my quick scan of the picks that year), much higher than I had him ranked prior to eh combine. He lasted two years with RSL. The lesson I took from that first combine was to LOWER the amount of import I placed on where other reporters and fans thought the player would go. The lesson was in fact to put MORE weight into my own evaluations. But Kreamalmeyer’s eventual absence from MLS doesn’t mean the combine isn’t important. This isn’t an exact science. Heck Abe Thompson, Aaron Pitchkolan, Dan Kennedy, Bill Gaudette, and Jeff Larentowicz were all taken after Kreamalmeyer. And I could list 20 guys before him that are also out of MLS. You may recall that at the 2005 Combine it wasn’t Kreamalmeyer that was the “revelation” for me, it was Chris Rolfe. Based on my evaluation of Rolfe I would have taken him at the bottom of the first or top of the second round. I still have my annual combine Chris Rolfe Man Crush Player Award in honor of Rolfe from that 2005 combine, which was my first. The point being that the combine is useful as a TOOL and as PART of your evaluation process. Some of the best players in the college game are brought together so the level of individual skill in these games is higher than a normal college game. Particularly for players from small schools and tiny programs. Can they in fact keep up with the talent here? Here’s some of the things I personally look for.1. Does he stand out here? 2. Does he have strong individual skills? Touch, pace, shot, feet, vision, etc, etc, etc. (this is a very long list of things I evaluate) 3. Can he combine with people he doesn’t know, does he make players better? 4. Is he tactically adaptable, is he a smart player? Can he play in a position he’s not used to, with people he’s not used to, and in formations he’s not used to? 5. If you’ve never seen him in person, does what you were told, read, or heard, match up with what you are seeing? 6. How do his skills compare to the other best in college players? Is he a touch faster, slower, bigger, stronger, better? Standing side by side to these others players and under close inspection how does he compare in small ways? We also must take into account the down sides of this process.1. Is he sandbagging? Is he just not motivated? 2. Does he already know he’s going high and doesn’t want to get hurt? 3. Is he already hurt and is he playing hurt trying to win a job? (See Luke Sassano) 4. Did he stay in shape between now and the end of the college season? So yes, it’s a complicated process. And Goff is right, don’t buy the hype. But the combine certainly isn’t useless, quite the opposite in fact. Why do you think every MLS teams sends their entire staff. Ruud Gullit spent all last year’s combine chatting up Thomas Rongen and not watching, just how well did their draft and year go? So I hope you’ll check back and read our coverage. (Funny how it seems the people that love the combine are ones that go to it?) Edit: As I wrote this, Ridge Mahoney of Soccer American was apparently thinking the same thing. Brillilant minds think alike eh Ridge? 32 Comments Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI Leave a comment |
I don’t think it is useless, but it isn’t all that helpful either.
If the combine was two-three weeks before the draft, it would give the clubs a chance to go back and watch more film on the kids that stood out. Also, it would give them an opportunity to interview more of the players and get a sense of their commitment and expectations.
Instead, the combine ends less than 48 hours before the draft, and the clubs end up putting way too much stock into what they just saw.
Also, they should be putting these kids through position drills and testing their athletic ability. Every player is going to have a learning curve when they enter the league, and the clubs need to get a better understanding of how high the upside is. Robbie Findley is a good example of a great athlete that happend to play soccer. After a couple of seasons, Findley looks like he could be a 10-12 goals per year guy if Kreis gives him minutes.
For the record, LAG had a good draft last year. The only thing Lalas actually did well ws draft. Franklin was rookie-of-the-year, Allen and McDonald made the squad and look to be future contributors. Gullit had nothing to do with the draft — he didn’t even go to it.
They do test the players at the combine in raaw numbers. Things like 40s, shuttle runs, stuff like that. But yes they need to do more of that.
And I rated Findley as the best forward in his class and the combine confirmed that.
And for the record LA had a bad draft last year. Franklin was rated as one of the top defenders, that’s easy to pick out of their own backyard of california. Allen is an average wide mid at best. And McDonald isn’t anyhere near good enough for MLS, he’s part of why LA stinks.
Then, by your standards, no one had a good draft last year.
My standards on a good draft are not based on year one playing time. It’s based on longer range potential and the ability to draft talent above were the team was picking.
5 years from now we may think FCD had a great draft with Shea, Lambo, and the total second round steal Avila. But if they don’t pan out then it sucked.
Even though not many of them played yet, the Revs had a terrific draft. Valentino should be recovered now and soon be a player. Videira, the best senior MF in the pool last year, has signed. They traded for Phalen (I know not a pick) and that’s a steal. Mkokheli Dube is a total masterpiece pick for the 5th round. And Chris Tierney also in the 5th round has some potential. PLus they took the player I really dig, Joe Germanese.
That’s a spectacular draft.
Then again opinions are like assholes, and I’m certainly one of them.
Buzz, Have you ever seen Daniel Cruz play? I saw the U20’s play Mexico in Laredo and the top 2 things that I came away from that game is Ike will compete for a WC roster spot and DC was just not athletic freak. He has skills.
Doesn’t everyone remember Alex Smith, the #1 overall draft pick in the NFL Draft?
I remember him, but he hasn’t been worth a damn. You could say the same thing about every professional sports combine and draft. Some guys can turn it on in game situations, and some guys can’t. It’s just the way it goes.
I enjoy keeping up with the combines and drafts from all the top sports in America. It’s fun for me as a fan.
The people who look down on them are just looking for reasons to whine and gripe.
No you’re not – just protective of your ranking system.
I believe if you can get one future starter and one future contributor, you’ve had a good draft.
I also know you have a chip on your shoulder about Brandon McDonald because he was so low on your rating system. My retort: Xavier Balc.
How’s Brian Plotkin doing?
I also want to defend LA’s draft (and Bravo, not Ruud, gets the credit or blame).
The first round pick was a starter (out of position) and is getting looks on the national team. The second round pick is a project and will probably be an average player. The fourth round pick started a few games and shows potential (and McDonald is much better than you give him credit for)
If every draft was that good, I’d take it. Maybe it wasn’t the best draft, but it’s hard to call it bad.
Drafting the right players is only part of it. They have to be developed by playing them and then retaining them when they perform.
The Dallas Burn had a very good draft in 2004, many thought the best overall at the time but none are still here. Goodson & Nunez went on the bigger things, Marin lasted 1.5 years, Wag’s retired and the 6th round guy was cut. So they go from a great draft to zero in less than 4-5 years. By the five year standard they basically had the worst draft of any team.
Having watched LA all season, I disagree on McDonald – he was the only central midfielder in the squad who showed up to play at all. It was the various players he was paired with in central midfield who stunk it up. I would argue, in fact, that he has the most potential of all the players the Galaxy drafted in 2008. Good first touch, outstanding ability (for a rookie) to hold the ball in traffic, cannon of a right foot, knows how to use his size to his advantage. The team’s 12-game winless streak coincides with a period in which McDonald was injured. I thought LA actually had one of the better drafts in 2008, which was the only saving grace of the season.
pwip, yes I have. Opara has massive potential, I think could be the best since Eddie Pope, and i like Cruz.
Media man and others…. As for McDonald, I’m just not convinced he’s that good. I predict that by the time Arena gets LA playing well McDonald will be out of the team just as Brandon Moss was out of the Crew team despite being “a good rookie and a starter.” I also bet LA drafts a holding midfiedler to try and replace him.
I certainly could be wrong on McDonald, it won’t be the first time nor the last.
As for Xavier Balc I had him #2 on the forward list. Which is only a miss by a couple spots. The only players below him still playing are Ely Allen and Ryan Cordeiro both of whom I rightly predicted would be midfielders. Nobody predicted Mkhokheli Dube would be worth anything except Nicol. I bet even he was just rolling the dice.
Plotkin was just waived after three seasons in MLS.
Overall I think my system is pretty good. Hell I only know of one other person who even bothers to do rankings.
I don’t think I’d call playing for a second division Mexican team “moving on to better things”.
Not sure the Ruud Gullit point helps your thesis. The LAG year was obviously cr@p, but the draft produced Sean Franklin, Ely Allen, Brandon MacDonald. The first was a rock for LAG and the others provided very useful minutes. Slam the year, but Gullit’s inattention did not cost LAG a decent draft. And maybe it was Paul Bravo doing the drafting anyway.
And yes, I realize the team is currently “not relegated yet”, but with Davino heading out there to seal the team’s fate, how can I be wrong?
You’re system is excellent – we’re just giving you sh*t for fun.
We all know you had Xavier Balc ranked as the #1 insurance salesman.
The people defending LA’d draft base it on three players getting large minutes out of the draft.
I say it’s not a good draft because 1. you’re supposed to get the first rounder right, picking #4 overall should be easy.
2. The other two players play not because they are good but because they were all LA had.
3. LA was really horrible and it’s because of their midfield and defense, the very position for which the “good” argument is pointing to for these players.
clearly I’m not convincing you and you’re not convincing me so let’s give it a rest. and frankly a year later why do we even give a crap.
None of which changes that Gullit sat there with his head up his ass and then seemed shocked that he didn’t have good players.
MM, it’s all good. I enjoy the debate as much as anyone.
I had Balc too high certainly. But I still say all the forward sucked. If I miss only one or two in the my top 20 that’s fairly good I think.
I’m not saying Balc will ever amount to anything as a pro, but he’s actually not proven much either way. He turned down a chance for a DEV contract and finished school. Now everyone seems to have lost track of him as he might not be pursuing a soccer career. I don’t expect Cordeiro or Allen to last long in MLS. Sometimes the forward pool is only 1 or 2 deep.
I’ve yet to see any rankings anywhere near as good as those on this site. Joe Mauceri is the only one close and I don’t think he’s done full rankings before this year? Ives has tons of contacts and seems to need them considering how low Wallace and Cronin were initially ranked. I appreciate his work but it’s more reporting than scouting.
It’s fair to criticize but foolish not to realize the amazing service Buzz is basically doing as volunteer work.
Great point Buzz, though the point you could have made was how Goff loves to rip events he doesn’t go to. i remember him ripping the All-Star game in Canada, and guess what? He wasn’t there.
It boils down to the simple fact that Goff doesn’t know jack about the Combine or the draft or college soccer. if they’re not an ACC kid or from the DC area he hasn’t got a clue. So rather than study up and get a clue, he just bashed it as unimportant.
Thanks for all you do Buzz. Your draft work is invaluable and anybody mocking the combine or the draft should just shut up.
LA won’t draft a holding midfielder.
With Donovan expected to stay in Europe, Bruce is switching to a 4-2-3-1 with Beckham as one of the holding midfielders (Klein and Franklin return to their natural positions).
He likes McDonald as one back-up, and he has acquired Griffin (HM/CH/LB utility guy) and Miglioranzi (HM) in the last two days.
Then there is the rumor that he still would like Dema Kovalenko to be the other starter.
Buzz,
You do know that Germanese was just cut, right?
I agree the combine serves a purpose but there are definitely better ways of doing it. However, it probably won’t change much soon so I enjoy it for what it is.
Buzz, thanks for doing all the rankings and draft coverage. One player I am interested in hearing your opinion of is Kwame-Adjeman Pamboe from George Mason. I think he could be a Dominic Oduro type player. He is very fast, but also more raw than other top prospects.
Players such as him are the reason why the combine is fun. Maybe you do not find an unknown who should be the top pick but seeing players who don’t have much of a chance finding a niche in the league.
I agree with the defending of Brandon McDonald . . . MLS is a physical league that requires athleticism more than just technical ability. He’s black, strong, and fast – so he has all the tools to eventually do well
Did you really just say that Chase?!?!
stop messing with Buzz
http://web.mlsnet.com/news/mls...mp;vkey=news_mls&fext=.jsp
Jason, no I did not. He’s still listed on the NE roster.
Germanese is out of contract. His developmental deal wasn’t upgraded to cover him during the offseason. Many players in this situation will be invited to preseason and may still stay with the team.
and here’s the press release (weekly release) that mentioned Germanese’s contract lapsing
http://www.revolutionsoccer.ne...ail&pid=36022&pcid=115
I’d be surprised if Flood and Manzonelli were outright released. I think NE has until some time in (or around) March to waive these players before anyone else in MLS could sign them. Of course they can go sign in Europe right away …
Does the combine tell anyone anything they didn’t already know.
I don’t think so…..
[...] about the time of the MLS Combine I wrote a little piece called 120 Fahrenheit: Slamming the Combine about why I felt the combine was still [...]