October 21st, 2008 . 11:21 am . By: Buzz Carrick

The Expansion Draft is something we’re going to have to get used to over the next few years as more teams come into the league.  2008 will be like 2007 in that one team is coming into the league.  It’s fairly safe to guess then at what the rules will be.  It almost certainly will take place on the Friday following MLS Cup, thus giving teams one week to make trades before the roster freeze that will come 24 hours before the Expansion Draft.  With FCD eliminated from the playoff spots, I figured I might as well run this.

Here’s what we can fairly safely guess the rules will be.  Each MLS team can protect up to eleven (11) players.  Designated Players (DP) can NOT be exposed. Generation adidas don’t count and in effect are automatically protected.  Generation adidas player will be graduated to the senior roster prior to the Expansion Draft, in FCD’s case this almost certainly means Blake Wagner but not Bruno Guarda, Anthony Wallace, Break Shea, Josh Lambo, or Eric Avila.  Normal developmental players do count and must be protected or exposed as the team sees fit.

The rule about how many internationals a team can or can’t protect are based on a complicated formula.  All we really need to know is that FCD doesn’t have to expose any internationals if they don’t want to, or so I’m told.

Since we have to start somewhere, let’s start with the eleven protected players.

Protected List (11)

For the sake of having some sense of order I’ll run through the first eleven first.

1. Kenny Cooper – Well duh.  Even if FCD is going to sell him it’s still Duh.  The team will pick up Coop’s option too.

2. Jeff Cunningham – Another no brainer.  he was brought in by Hyndman and Ellinger and did quite well.  FCD didn’t have to pay squat of his salary and now he’s out of contract and should be affordable.

3. André Rocha - First off you want to keep him, second it would be a insult to CAP to expose him even if you knew Rocha was going back to them.  Can’t risk that CAP deal for one player. 

4. Pablo Ricchetti - An amazing second half of the year and Schellas’ MVP. The only question on him is how he will react if FCD just takes his option again.  Will Hyndman give Ricchetti the money he says Hitch and co. promised him?  Interesting question.

5. Victor Sikora – Hyndman just signed him to be a starter, why would he not protect him?  Sikora’s a key part of the 4-4-2 plan, which is another article.

6. Adrian Serioux – To good a player to let go even if you can’t figure out where to play him.  Who knows if he will be here next year, but if he’s not it won’t be via expansion draft.

7. Drew Moor – He just signed a new deal which has 3 more years to go.  He’s also captain when Davino was out and jsut might be the captain outright in 09. He’s the kind of prime of career American MLS can actually hold onto..

8. Dario Sala - Schellas loves him some Dario.  There are quite a few observers who don’t think much of Sala, but Hyndman isn’t one of them.  Dario’s in the upper half of keepers in MLS, where depends on how much you like him I suppose.  But the green card makes him an American in every way that matter for MLS.

That’s it for the first eleven, now for some second team’ers…

9. Dax McCarty – Now here’s a guy who clearly isn’t a Schellas Hyndman favorite.  But he does have terrific skill and value.  If you expose him it’s a virtual certainty he gets taken.  So even though I firmly believe McCarty will be traded this winter, you still have to protect that value.  One scenario might be to trade him to Seattle prior to the expansion draft with part of the agreement being the Sounders don’t take any other FCD players.  If said trade does happen then someone else will be protected, which I’ll get to below.

10. Dominic Oduro – With his relative break through season and the real danger speed threat he brings off the bench, it’s gotta be Dom here.  He’s by no means a finished product, but you can’t teach speed and it would be quite hard to find a college player who will give you more in ‘09 than Dom could without having a VERY high draft pick.  In the end he has to much value to risk him, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding Kenny Cooper’s return.

Ok one more starter… Wagner, even though a starter, is the protected name I am least sure about and is most likely to be risked by Hyndman.  So I’m putting him last on my list.

11. Blake Wagner - Wait, isn’t he Ga?  Why yes, but Generation adidas players are usually promoted before the expansion draft.  It’s very likely that Wagner is going to be promoted to full roster by MLS based on playing time.  If not, then great, he’s protected.  “He’s done well enough” is hardly a ringing endorsement by Hyndman, but left footed players are to hard to find.  Capable of playing left back and left mid, he even played some d-mid for the 17s back in the day.  Can dribble well, beat guys on the run and can cross.  His only deficiencies are size and decision making.  But it’s not enough to let him go for free. 

Not Protected – Could be Taken

The first three are in real danger of getting selected.  I’ve listed them in order of risk for selection.  Any of these three might make the list over Blake Wagner, but not McCarty or Oduro I don’t think.

Aaron Pitchkolan – I think FCD will be forced to expose Pitch, although he’s one that could trade places with McCarty if FCD deals the Red Arrow.  Pitch has done enough to show he can start in this league.  But let’s face it, in crunch time Schellas went back to Davino, he didn’t trust Pitch enough to stay with him.  That’s not a good sign that Pitch will get a chance to start next year.  Which makes him at best a role player and spot starter.  Unfortunately Pitch is the player I think most at risk to be taken.  Frankly he deserves a chance to start so a move to Seattle might be perfect for him.

Marcelo Saragosa – Sure he’s one of the coach’s favorites.  But he’s not supposed to be a starter.  Great guy, everyone’s friend off the field.  Fantastic squad player.  Can start or even make a long run in the first team.  Can play a couple different spots.  But there’s just not enough value here to knock someone off the list above.  The only caveat to that is how much Schellas seems to relish hard work, will that be enough to displace Wagner perhaps?  Not in my book.  An expansion team might go for him cause a hard nosed veteran holding midfielder for relatively low contract is a terrific place to start building your team.  But with Ricchetti and Serioux both capable of starting in the same spot there is little real risk to losing him from FCD’s stand point.

Ray Burse – There’s one reason to expose Ray, and that’s Kasey Keller.   Seattle has spent a ton of coin on a keeper that will play every minute.  So who the backup is will matter little.  They won’t need one for what… 3 seasons?  Still… for some reason in MLS the US keepers seems to be a dwindling commodity.  Burse has proven he can play in this league and he still has immense upside.  There’s even a school of thought that it’s time to go with Ray over Dario.  Is Schellas part of that school?  Since Burse played in the Pacific Northwest on loan this year, Seattle would certainly know all about him.  With Keller in the Emerald City the risk of losing Ray has more to do with Seattle taking Burse then trading him to someone else.   

Not Protected – Little Danger of Selection

Duilio Davino – But what about the captain?  No way he’s taken.  Do you really think Seattle will want a 32 year old defender for $400 guaranteed?  Certainly not one who’s proven to be slow for MLS.  There’s virtually no chance Seattle takes him. even if they do, that would help FCD anyway as it will clear $400k off the cap and remove a player they probably don’t want anyway.

Michael Dello- Russo - Dello has made some immense leaps forward this year.  He’s on the coach’s list of players he can put in a game at several positions and even spot start.  He’s the new version of Saragosa if you will.  But do other coaches know that?  Probably not enough to make him high risk as a pick, particularly given the above there names in the danger section.  Dello’s got a little something, just not more than Pitch, Saragosa, or Burse.

Bobby Rhine - I’m fairly certain this is Bobby’s last season playing.  He seems to have fallen way down the depth chart since Schellas took over.  Time to move to the coaching ranks or broadcast booth. Slight chance he might try and squeeze one more season, in Salt Lake perhaps?  Not much chance of Seattle unless someone up there wants him for his leadership.  Retirement seems to be the word around town.

David Wagenfuhr - The head injury and concussions make it a virtual certainty Wags is safe.  Although his career is very much in danger.

Andrew Daniels, Chase Wileman, Spencer Wadsworth, Jamie Watson, and Jeff Rowland are all very low on the risk list for various reasons.  And if they do get taken, good for them cause it should mean a lot of playing time.

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