MLS Power Rankings: Week 12
June 20th, 2008 . By: Parrish GloverEd note: the following was written prior to the Thursday night game. Due to travel constraints I was not able to get it up in time. United finally climbs out of the cellar, but which is the real D.C.? Is it the team that lost six out of seven in April and May? Is it the team that hasn’t lost in four matches since, with three of those matches against current top five teams? In my experience, when you can’t tell what a team’s true identity, it means that you’re dealing with a team that doesn’t have a true identity, one that will go run hot and cold in equal measure and finish the season at .500.
I’m highlighting United this week in light of criticism last week that I have little choice but to agree with. A team that had earned four points on the road against the #1 and #2 teams in the league was ranked #14. All I can say is that the current Rankomatic system, like the BCS, is an ever-evolving formula. Also like the BCS, it’s wrong. My best hope is that the current system is less wrong than the one it replaces. While the previous ranking would not have had DCU at #14 last week, its #12 position is no improvement, particularly when you consider that the team would have gained nothing this week after throttling RBNY, as home wins were assumed to be part of normal form and goal differential was not a consideration. Since streakiness seems to be a part of how MLS teams function as a matter of course, I’ll be looking to include a factor that focuses more specifically on recent matches. I had considered bringing it in this year, but chose not to for a couple of key reasons. First, without having a book of knowledge to backtest against, I was concerned that the form factor would have either too great or too little impact on the rankings. Second and more importantly, your humble correspondent’s dedication to his volunteer role is as great as his remuneration. Chicago continues to hold the top spot, despite losing on the road. Again, expectations play a key role here. A one goal loss at home is punished with only a 1.7 drop in ranking Form score. By point of comparison, San Jose’s loss at home cost them 4.5 in the Form column. However, at long last, the Revs are within striking distance of taking over the lead. There are nine games on the slate this week, but beyond the battle for third between L.A. and Columbus, these matchups aren’t hitting me as especially intriguing at this time. Watch your favorite team, watch the Euros, and get some sleep. You look a little tired lately. 4 Comments Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI Leave a comment |
Don’t overthink. Don’t second guess.
Why should DC be ranked higher than 10, or 12/14 last week? They only have 16 points - and their most recent win was against NY.
By overthinking this you run into the problem of wanting to put a team higher or lower based on their potential rather than on how well they are actually playing.
Discussions of weighting for recent games should take place only after you have truly decided what these rankings are. The power rankings could be a measure of how good each team has been this season — althoug, I would make the case that Buzz’ unified table accomplishes this latter pretty darn well.
In my mind, a good power ranking approximates the current play of the teams. A measure, if you will, of how much the thought of them coming to town scares me this weekend. If this is your goal, then you may want to ONLY count recent games, and develop a coefficient for key injuries and callups.
In any case, don’t worry too much about the citique based on quibbles over individual teams.
Damn, maybe Buzz should allow editing of comments for spelling. My above post is embarassing.
But then, he doesn’t bother with his own spelling, so, why should I expect him to care.
HA! I love Buzz’s posts. They should be shown to all Middle Schoolers as lessons on relying too much on a computer spell checker. Of course, the number of edits I make on BigSoccer posts could be used as a similar lesson on the value of a typing class.
Mostly agreed, except for the Fire.
Even before they looked awful last night, I’d have had them about 3rd at best. Now maybe fifth. They are obviously scuffling, which is why I wasn’t too excited about our win over them Sun. We needed it like air, and I’ll take it.
But this isn’t the Fire of earlier this season.