April 29th, 2008 . 2:04 pm . By: Buzz Carrick

Well we really don’t have a plan B. We didn’t expect for the first plan to work. Sometimes you can over plan these things. – Dusty Bottoms

I’ve had mixed feeling about this season for a while now.  Some things about this team I like and some I do not. Some of the winter moves I liked and some I did not. I was certainly on board with dumping Carlos for a bag of cash and a pick, and that fact that only LA seemed to have any interest ought to tell us something.  But on the other hand I have also felt all along that FCD overpaid for a elder defender in the form of Duilio Davino.

Now FCD is 5 games into the season and my feelings about this team have settled into a state of cautious optimism.

Why?  I’m glad you asked.

Optimistic

1. Coop – The source of my optimism starts at the top with the return of Kenny Cooper to his rookie year form.  4 goals in 5 games is a return I will take, that extrapolates out to a 24 goal season, give or take.  Quite frankly24 goals is crazy to expect and it’s not a pace I think Cooper can maintain.  If someone can convince Cooper to sped more of his time in the center channel things will be dandy.  The Revs is a perfect example of why this is so important.  Cooper is dangerous in the box with the ball at his feet, that’s a situation that needs to be maximized.

2. AA - Arturo Alvarez is looking both dynamic and dangerous.  He too won’t keep up his point a game pace (2 goals+2 assists, 4 games), but he’s certainly shown an ability to create chaos.  To be truly effective Alvarez needs to receive the ball in the final third and make those really dangerous runs into the danger area on top of the key or inside the 18.  More of that is a good thing and the free role Alvarez is playing is ideal for him.

3. The Three Amigos - The back three is starting to come together.  FCD is tied with SJ for best goals against in west and is behind only Chicago and New York overall.  Considering the formation change and the new captain that’s not a bad place to be.  The few late goals given up don’t worry me and beyond the fact if you take them away FCD would be even higher up the table.  Serioux has begun to trust Davino and is returning to his aggressive defensive ways.  When Serioux has to play deep and react he is not nearly the player he is when he is fast, aggressive, and defending high as he has been of late.  Davino is adapting to the pace of MLS, which clearly caught him off guard, and is now playing the deeper role.  Drew Moor has been far from bad and he is still relatively young which means he should continue to improve over this year as his comfort level with Davino improves.

4. Mr. JT - Juan Toja is still only 80-85% in my eyes and he’s been one of FCD’s best players.  When his fitness comes around and his leg fully recovers he should be devastating.  Now FCD just needs to figure out how to keep him healthy.  There needs to be repercussions for hitting Toja, that’s something that should fall to Serioux, Moor, Ricchetti, Saragosa, and Rocha to make happen.

5. Hold It - I really like the possession game FCD is playing, that’s a large part of why I advocated this formation before last season.  That quick passing play is keyed by the ability of the front seven to play that kind of game; Cooper, Alvarez, Toja, McCarty, Rocha, Ricchetti, and Wagner.  If FCD can keep the shape tight and keep the ball from the opposition if should be effective in helping them battle the heat in Texas.

6. The Roach – There still lots of upside and room for improvement in André Rocha’s game.  Nobody adapts to MLS fully in just five games and we’ve seen flashes of what the Roach is capable of.  His two assists lead FCD (tied with Alvarez) and I think there is more to come in that area as he learns how to play with his teammates.  Those things take time and by season end I believe he will be one of FCD’s best players.

7. The Red Arrow – Dax McCarty is learning how to be effective as a wide midfielder.  Let’s be honest, almost everyone, Morrow included, thinks Dax is a better central midfielder and that his future is in the middle.  But in the mean time Dax is getting on the field and making an impact.  He’s already become the de facto free kick and corner taker.  Once Dax learns how to penetrate going forward and gains a little more of the defensive experience he’ll be really outstanding.

8. In the Net -  Despite the Lambo injury and the Burse loan I think the FCD net minder situation is terrific, mainly cause Dario Sala is healthy and in impeccable form.  Dario is showing he’s a top tier MLS keeper.   Burse is by all accounts playing well in Portland despite the crazy frequent flyer miles he’s racking up.  We certainly know Burse is MLS capable.  Once Lambo’s six week recovery is done, he’ll be back on track and playing reserve matches.  Burse and Lambo both have massive potential to be great.  FCD is loaded in the nets.

Cautious

1. Who Else - While Cooper is scoring, no one else is really.  FCD is middle of the pack in goals for, which I can live with for now, but I think there is a deeper problem of not enough chances being created.  FCD is 13th and 11th respectively in shots and shots on goal, that needs to improve. I love the shoots/goal ratio, so it merely comes down to being smart in the final third and getting into good positions.  Obviously Toja getting 100% will help, but the wide players needs to step up some more and Rocha needs to make some penetrating runs and add some long range shooting.

2. Tipping – Speaking of wide players, right now FCD is lopsided.  Watch any given game and 75% of the FCD play goes down the right side. I don’t want to shred Blake Wagner, but the left wingback is a problem spot.  Yes he’s young, yes he has been improving, yes he has some real good skills in his bag.  But if that spot doesn’t come up to balance the right then FCD will have problems progressing late in the year.  David Wagenfuhr had won that spot int he spring and his experience would have helped.  But Wags is in real danger with the concussion and worst case scenario his career is over.  Something may have to happen here.

3. In a Corner – FCD is giving up way to many corners.  Through the Chivas game FCD had given up 29 corners and only taken seven, that’s simply not good enough.  Now I know for a fact Morrow talked to his defense about it and it got better against New England with seven for FCD and only three for New England.  But let’s be honest that was an odd game and the Revs did a lot of sitting back.  Now part of the problem is that everyone is trying to go over the top on FCD, and that’s ok.  The part we don’t want to see is the casual ball touched out that could be booted wide for a throw instead.  That’s simply a matter of concentration and effort and can easily be solved.  So let’s watch this stat over the next few games.

4. Over the Top -It is clear that Davino underestimated the speed of MLS in the first few games.  It’s not shocking actually as many foreign signings do.  It’s also clear Davino isn’t very fast.  As a consequence teams are going to continue to try and exploit Davino for pace.  He’s smart enough to know that and is already compensating.  I’m not to concerned about it frankly on a game by game basis cause Davino is a Parkhurst style defender who reads the game very well and out anticipates everyone.  Where I will grown concerned is if over the course of the summer schedule and Dallas heat Davino begins to suffer late in games.  He’s not a spring chicken you know.

5. D-mid Quandry – Here’s a real dilemma, with Saragosa in the game FCD has not been scored upon and has a 0.00 GAA.  There’s a great deal to be said for that and with 234 minutes played that’s not a statistical anomaly.  You can’t underestimate Saragosa’s defensive capabilities and what he does to the opposition.  You also can’t underestimate how much he wrecks the FCD ball flow through the middle.  I think we all know the classy skill Ricchetti brings to the game and how much he contributes to the flow and possession going forward.  With Ricchetti in the game FCD plays some downright pretty ball.  The problem is with an identical 234 minutes played with Ricchetti in the game FCD has given up 5 goals and Ricchetti carries a 1.92 GAA.

So What to Do

1. Don’t Stop – The first thing to do it keep going with the current set up as it’s mostly working. There’s no reason at this point to change much of anything because we need to see much more to get a really definitive answer.  It’s way to early to be making big moves and changes.

2. Strike 9 Later – Later in the season, perhaps midseason or in the second window, FCD needs to get a another striker.  Preferably one who plays as a high central channel striker, a #9 is you will.  What would we think of this team, for example, if it had a 2007 Juan Pablo Angel to play with Cooper.  FCD would be serious cup contender, that’s what we would think.  The best MLS teams have two 10 to 15 goal scorers and a couple guys on the bench who can seriously contribute.  A #9 striker is the one major piece missing.

3. One More D – FCD needs to replace Alex Yi, even if it’s just a back up defender.  Someone to play behind and challenge Serioux.  Someone that can play that left center back spot if Serioux has to play somewhere else for whatever reason.  It’s doesn’t have to be a big time talent or cost player since he mostly will play reserves and sit the bench.  But there is a hole here that needs filling.

4. Counterweight – The formation has to be balanced out.  Yes, let’s give Wagner at least 10 games and maybe till midseason depending on how Break Shea and Anthony Wallace are playing.  But after the mid way point if FCD is still lopsided it will be time to start getting Brek Shea and Anthony Wallace in mix until one of the them steps up.  If by the roster freeze no one has taken this spot to played to balance McCarty then it will be time to pull the trigger on a trade, since Wagenfuhr seems to be in real trouble.

5. Rotate D-Mids - Normally I’m not a huge rotation guy as I don’t think there’s enough games in MLS to really bother.  But in this case I think both Saragosa and Ricchetti need to see the field.  When Toja is in the game and the play is going to go through the middle of the 3-5-2 put Ricchetti out there for his ball skill and passing.  When Toja is out and the team is playing 3-4-3 the ball will be going down the wings, in those games play Saragosa to clog up the middle and stop the opponents from playing right down Sala’s throat.

6. Pitch In – I’m surprised myself to be saying this, but between US Open Cup, MLS games, and other exhibitions, Aaron Pitchkolan needs to start 10 to 12 games for Davino.  Duilio is so key to what FCD is doing in the back that Morrow needs to ensure his captain is fresh and charged come playoff time.  This isn’t like most leagues where the long slog of the season is where titles are won.  In MLS titles are won in a short burst of 4 games.  Davino needs to be in peak health and sharpness for those fours games.  So protect him by not playing him in every single game of the season.

That’s It

So that’s why I’m cautiously optimistic.

What do you think about FCD?  Can this team compete?

Categories: 120 Fahrenheit.

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