April 24th, 2008 . 12:34 pm . By: Parrish Glover

The Rankomatic 130 has arrived and we are shifting over to a more quant-based methodology. The Rankomatic has instructed me to make some drastic changes to last week’s rankings, far more drastic than any movements we’ve had up to this point. Of course, the Rankomatic is also instructing me to make the rivers run red with the blood of the insolent, so I’m not totally sold yet on the work of the fine folks at USFBOR (United States Federal Bureau of Rankomaticking).

About the Methodology

The traditional system used at 3rd Degree has been maintained, with some important modifications. The original system was based off the rule of thumb that successful teams were expected to win at home and tie on the road. It took the team’s actual point total and deducted a number of points based off that expectation. However, we found this system to be too punitive. We feel it also failed to give a proper perspective from which to base the differences between two scores. The only way a team could gain points in the old system was to win on the road, all other results were a deduction or a net-zero, and no team in MLS history has ever met that lofty standard.

Therefore, we have adjusted the system to focus less on some hypothetical super squad and more on an average team, one that will strive to maintain that standard but fail on a fairly regular basis. Historically, the cut-off line for teams that make the playoffs has been around 40 points. The new system expects teams to accumulate 30 points at home and an additional 10 on the road to meet the cut line. That averages to 2.00 ppg at home and 0.67 on the road. We have further added a 0.50 point smoothing factor that will be added to a team losing at home and deducted from one winning on the road. We feel that after this week, this will limit overly harsh swings in rankings without drastically affecting the overall result.

However, all wins are not created equal. After calculating the raw form score, we add or subtract the team’s goal differential, thereby benefiting teams that can regularly ring up multi-goal victories and pushing down sides that get blown out. Back testing this system against the 2007 final standings, FC Dallas ranked fourth under a pure form ranking but seventh after including the differential. This seems correct, given what we saw on the field in both the regular and post-seasons.

The Week Ahead

Honestly, I’m writing this during lunch on Thursday. With earnings season upon us, this stock analyst hasn’t had much time to think about the games he saw last week or the games he wants to watch this weekend. That being said, there are some things that stand out to me…

Despite losing at home, Chicago remains second in the rankings. They face a decent Colorado team and both of them are coming off of bitter losses at home. This should be a fun fight as each team looks to shake off the bitterness of the previous weekend.

After two straight losses, one marred by red cards and the other with the subsequent suspensions, the system tells me that Chivas is one of the worst teams in the league. They next face one of the true worst teams in the league in the always hotly-contested Angelino Derby.

A win on the road, and yet I still don’t place much stock in Kansas City. This week they have another road trip, but Toronto looks to be hitting a hot streak. Like I said last week, the Reds are showing up with competitive talent but like I’ve said for years, I place no faith in the managerial abilities of import coaches.

I don’t have any predictions as to results, but I do like the line-up this weekend. If you see me at The Globe Pub in Chicago, stop by to say hello, but please don’t distract me too much from the screens. I happen to like this gig.

Categories: Power Rankings.

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