November 18th, 2007 . 9:44 am . By: Buzz Carrick

The time has come for someone to put their foot down. And that foot is me. – Dean Vernon Wormer

In order to begin the winter planning for FCD we started with a consideration of what we have learned about the head coach.  It was important to consider Morrow first because his nature will dictate what direction FCD will go in.  Step two is now to set out a plan we feel Morrow is most likely to follow this winter.

The following is based on several conversations with Morrow and his staff, what I know about the man, his (and my) opinion of the players, and what I know about how the league works.  For further background that went into this piece you can read both the Final Season Grades and What We’ve Learned About Steve Morrow.

As we discussed in the later of those two articles, Morrow will build his squad first, then figure out how to best play with then.  He will try to build toward his preferred formation, and more importantly tactics, but Steve is really more about building a great squad than he is targeting specific positions.  In other words he’s not going to target a starting 11, which means I can’t use the usual method of plugging holes in the current lineup.  So instead we’ll just talk about the squad and what might be missing in Morrow’s mind.

We’ll start with the areas that need improvement.

Additions

Let’s face it, this is a 3rd place in the conference and 5th in the league team we are talking about.  Solid? yes, but the goal it to win it all, not be solid.  That means the team needs to be upgraded.  At this point in the progression of MLS that almost certainly doesn’t mean draft picks.  Top tier teams, which FCD is (is close to?), don’t get better with a pick. So that means signings or trades.  Draft picks help a team be good for a long time, see New England.

Up Front

Goals are measurable, and that makes it easy to say not enough goals were being scored last year.  If Cooper is healthy and back on form it will help, so would Mina’s recovery.  Maybe Oduro or Thompson taking another stop forward could add something.  Perhaps Ruiz can return to top form and become the 20 goal striker a top team needs.

But read that again.  There’s a lot of ifs, maybes, and perhaps in there.  This is professional soccer, we can’t sit on the side and hope our favorite guy come through.  Something has to be done to fix the problem.  Strong winning franchises actively seek solutions.  Example, DC United last winter stopped waiting for Eskandarian and went out and got a top gun in Emilio.  So will Morrow hope Ruiz becomes the 02 Ruiz, will he hope Cooper returns to peak form, will he hope someone else progresses?  No, he’ll go get a top flight striker.  If one of those other things happens, then fantastic, FCD will have two great goal scorers.  Given cap and all that, someone will have to be sacrificed to make a move, but we’ll get to that later. This is the position I expect FCD to burn their DP or sign a high salary allocation.

Defensive Leader

Both Drew Moor and Clarence Goodson are very nice young’ish central defenders.  Both have potential to be quite good eventually and both believe they have the makings of a good partnership. But FCD doesn’t have that vocal defensive leader and organizer.  FCD doesn’t have a Conrad, a Parkhurt, a Robinson, or a Suarez.  Moor being the younger and more recent addition will defer to Goodson on the field, Goodson just isn’t a vocal organizer by nature.

Does that mean either one of them is a bad defender? No it doesn’t.  It just means that to take this team to the next level a more dominate vocal presence in the back is needed.  A voice with experience and a winning mentality.  It’s the reason Morrow went and got Serioux this last year, to find someone to lead the back.  Between the injuries and other factors, that move didn’t quite work so Morrow will most certainly want to get someone. 

A small part of me is curious how Ricchetti might look in middle of the back line.  Pablo played some right back when he was in Spain and is a real good holding midfielder, he might make an easy transition.

Right Back

Another area of concern is the right back spot.  Morrow spent both transfer windows looking at a couple options for right back and eventually decided what was on offer was less than Drew Moor.  Drew is a nice defender and in an old school 4-4-2 he’s fine as a right back (see his call up to the National Team).  But Morrow doesn’t want to play an old school 4-4-2 which means he wants a modern outside back.  The prototypical international example is the Argentine Javier Zanetti, but there are MLS examples as well: Chris Albright, Frankie Hejduk, Hunter Freeman, Jonathan Bornstein, and Michael Harrington to name a few. 

Frequently, but not always, these players are forwards or midfielders converted to outside backs. Players with some pace to run the line, great range, above average feet, willingness to take a player on the dribble, and the ability to pass and cross.  If Bobby Rhine were 20 and had the time to learn the defense I’d be ecstatic.   Instead look for Morrow to pursue a trade or singing.

But I have another option to toss out: Adrian Serioux.  He has all the qualities needed to be quite good at this spot.  If Ricchetti is still around to play midfield, Serioux might fit in nicely back here.  Adrian has great range, above average feet, and can both play in possession and pass fairly well.  He’s even got that long throw in which would be an asset on the side.

Current Players

Before we get into specifics of current players, here’s some important information about the off season timeline.  First of course will be the expansion draft where FCD will almost certainly lose a player.  Dallas will try and do a deal with San Jose to dictate who they take, but Yallop is not the wheeler and dealer Mo is so a deal is less likely.  Beyond the protected list (here’s one we did) FCD can’t control who they will lose.  In MLS player options have to be exercised for 2008 by Nov 30th this year. 2007 Player contracts run through Dec 31st.  So let’s start at the top.

Denny

It seems a no brainer that the option on Denilson won’t be picked up.  No way is this player worth $1 million.  Could Denilson be here next year?  Sure, it’s possible. He has a point about needing some time to fit the team and get in shape.  But that’s a player I might pay $100,000 for, not $1 mil.  Denilson’s attitude was good early, but word I’m getting out of the locker room is he soured some as he was benched.  Is that a surprise? Not really.  Bottom line for me is the tactical adjustment the team had to make to accommodate him is not worth his return.  The DP slot needs to be a winner both on the field and in the stands, Denilson is neither.  Time to cut bait.

Fish

Is Carlos Ruiz still a good player? Heck yes, he stepped it up in the playoffs.  But his regular season production is not worth what he’s getting paid.  This is a cap league, cost matters.  FCD was blessed by his Holiness, The Donovan, and no longer needs a DP for Ruiz in 2008, but the contract still remains very high.  Picking up his option will almost certainly have a raise in it, and that’s something FCD won’t want to do.  So it’s easy to predict that FCD will not pick up Ruiz’s option for 2008.

So then what? Negotiate with him? Heck yes, a $180,000 to $200,000 deal might be appropriate.  But I will go a step further and predict Ruiz won’t be in Dallas for two reasons.  1. When you cut a player’s salary in half he’s not going to be very happy.  How do you motivate a player to top performance when he feels like he’s been stiffed by the team?  Yes, that’s why coaches get paid, but… 2. Ruiz doesn’t fit the kind of player Morrow likes.  As we talked about in the previous piece, Morrow really likes players with range.  Mobility, energy, stamina, and determination are keys to this gaffers tactics.  Skill counts yes, but so does playing style and the playing style doesn’t fit.  Ruiz was Clarke’s signing, not Morrow’s.  Therefore I predict pursuit of a trade.  Ruiz has too much value to just be let go.

Who, where?  No idea.  But unless Ruiz makes some kind of public commitment to FCD and renewed focus on his own fitness and game I believe FCD will try and move him.  Worst case scenario is no deal worth while emerges.  In that case sign him cheaper and try to light a fire under him, or perhaps loan him to a team south of here.  But it’s important to get something done, the key to this plan is using the cap Ruiz frees up (and Denilson too) to get a top notch signing at the forward spot.

Buy Toja

FCD has an option to buy the contract on it’s MVP and will probably do so.  Apparently Santa Fe (Toja’s current owner) has a new coach, so thankfully Morrow negotiated the buy in the original deal.  So it’s just a matter of cost and contract.  The buy would be prorated over the course of a new contract so Toja’s cap number is going to go up.  Not DP up, but up a fair amount.  Could FCD continue the loan? Sure, but unless Toja expresses some level of desire to not be here, which would stun me given how much I understand he likes it here, it’s a very easy decision to pull the trigger here.

Re-Sign Three

Unfortunately for FCD two players who had outstanding years, Arturo Alvarez and Clarence Goodson, are both out of contract.  FCD should endeavor to sign both players.  As the younger player with more upside, Alvarez is going to demand a higher deal.  He falls into the same salary category as Toja and Núñez last year, something between $100,000 and $120,000.  Goodson had a heck of the year, he’s moved into the prime of his career as a solid veteran starter.  That should land him to the $80,000 to $100,000 range.

I think it’s much more likely that Alvarez will take a shot at playing somewhere else.  Europe perhaps, Mexico maybe, there were some MFL teams interested in him after the SuperLiga matches. Rumors persists of a trial for Arturo at Bordeaux, but I’ve been unable to confirm such a trial.  He would need permission from FCD to do so as he’s under contract until Dec 31.

Goodson is I think more likely to re-sign with FCD.  He might decide to take a shot at a mid-tier European league as this is his best shot to do so.  But he seems quite happy at FCD and he’ll have a great chance to make a nice living in MLS.

Ray Burse Jr, who also had an outstanding year, is in a different situation.  Ray was promoted from the developmental roster to the first team this year, which he quite deserved as he had become the second choice keeper.  Since this promotion happened after the Players Association leaked the salary numbers, we don’t know what kind of contract Burse signed.  It’s probably safe to assume that he was on a one year deal with $30k minimum contract.  In which case Burse will be in need of a new contract, perhaps something in the key sub or veteran role player category, $50 to $80k.  How much and how long are interesting questions.  It’s probably best for Burse to do something short term in case he earns the starting job, and it would behoove FCD to lock him up to a longer deal.

Exercise Options

Most of the rest of the options can me lumped into three categories.  The first of these are player who we know have (or probably have) options that are outstanding value. Ricchetti, Cooper, and Sala we know have team contract options.  Moor, Saragosa, and Serioux all likely have options.  All six players are ones FCD should keep.  These are core players that form the base structure of the team.  We don’t need to get into specifics on them, all are starters and all have contract’s with solid value.  If they were free agents they would probably either command more money on the open market or want more money to stay with FCD.  One or more of them might have to be sacrificed in a trade to get Morrow a piece he needs.  Defensive midfield specifically has a lot of high value.

By the way, Generation adidas players have contracts that don’t require options to be picked up as they automatically roll over.  Blake Wagner, Anthony Wallace, and Abdus Ibrahim all are automatically under contract for 2008.  Dax McCarty, even though he almost certainly will be graduated from Generation adidas to the full roster, will be on his original contract and should also roll over.

Loan Deals

The second category of player is the two other players under loan.  Like a normal contract the loan agreements usually have in place options for additional years.  They also sometimes have a buy price.  Ricardinho is an ideal loan for FCD as he only costs something like $30,000 on the cap because of the sister club deal with CAP.  He’s only 20ish with upside. I am sure CAP will wish he was playing more, but if they are willing to let him stay with FCD he will certainly be around in 08.

Roberto Mina is a bigger problem, no pun intended.  It’s not just that he’s injury prone, it’s also that he has such trouble staying fit.  He’s gotten quite big during his injury time.  And perhaps more importantly he gets paid (relatively speaking) a lot more money.  So does FCD give up on him?  I’m not sure.  When he got injured and then went home and had a procedure that wasn’t ordered by FCD docs, I thought for sure he was done here.  But then one thinks about all the great goals he scores.  Now think back to what I said about Ruiz.  Does Mina fit what we think Morrow likes in a player?  He’s more mobile and active Ruiz, but like Carlos he can struggle with fitness and stamina.  If his contract is not guaranteed, it might be a good idea for FCD to hold onto him until next year and see not only how he progresses.  But if I had to bet I’d place money on him not being here.

No Options

The last group on the roster is the set of players FCD almost certainly won’t pick up options on.  It’s a large group with various circumstances. Chris Gbandi’s option I believe won’t be picked up because Morrow’s going to give Blake Wagner the first shot at left back, not to mention it’s a large number.  Gbandi doesn’t deserve to sit around as a backup, he’ll either want to go to Europe or perhaps to another MLS team.  By not picking up his option FCD gives him a chance to sign somewhere else, or gives a team his MLS rights are traded to a chance to sign him.  Worst case for Chris he has to come back to FCD cheaper.  I find that highly unlikely though, despite the fact FCD would probably be happy to keep him on the cheap.

Alex Yi, David Wagenfuhr, Abe Thompson, Aaron Pitchkolan, Bobby Rhine, Dominic Oduro, Michael Dello-Russo, Scott Jones, and Sandy Gbandi (in no particular order) are all role players and backups of varying value.  Some of them, if not all, FCD will want to keep.  None of them have contracts that need to be rolled over and most of them are on one year deals anyway.  Each of them must make the senior roster and not all of them will fit.  Each can be renegotiated individually and will got contracts from $30,000 up to $50,000, maybe even $60,000 depending on value, experience, and what they bring to the table.  These are the players who are hurt the most by single entity and the lack of free agency.  Some other clubs in MLS might think they were starter worthy and offer them contracts.  All of them will have little choice but to return to FCD and win a spot on the roster, although Justin Moore’s USL move is certainly a possibility for them.

Andrew Daniels and Chase Wileman are both on the developmental roster and both will have the luxury of taking a spot on that roster in 2008, if not the luxury of the contract that goes with it.  Both could of course make the senior roster, but neither is likely to.  Daniels is safer as he’s a Morrow personal project with upside.  Wileman while he has some game, will need to beat off all the 2008 draft picks.  Next year is his real rookie year for all intents and purposes.

Preferred Tactics

We’ve talked about this a little but Morrow’s preferred formation is a 4-4-2 without wide midfielders.  It features a back four with a deep anchor midfielder patrolling in front of the defenders.  The outside backs bring most of the width, playing forward in support and even to cross or create danger (see Steve Cherundolo, US).  Next to the anchor mid is a linking two way player, not a #10.  This is not a diamond with the pure playmaker.  The two outside mids are not flank running players but instead are players with the freedom to roam and cut inside for combination play and penetrating runs into the box.  More Brad Davis and less Brian Mullan to make a Houston analogy. (Incidentally I wonder if Brad Davis is available with Holden’s emergence, I’d love to see him back in Dallas)

We’ll plug in some options and see where this all gets us…

It’s quite clear at this point that Morrow is going to mix it up, probably a lot.  Under Morrow players will get a shot at playing time if they step up in training.  Suspensions and injuries can give guys chances and they can hold onto the spot or lose it.  Availability may shift the formation and will certainly shift the personnel.  Let’s not forget the various versions of the 4-3-3 are very much in play, and even a 3-5-2 could be on the offer (although that latter is doubtful).

Questions to be Answered in the Spring

So where does that leave us?  With a few important questions that will need to be answered in the spring.  Perhaps they may not even be answered until later in the year.

1. What four players are first choice in the midfield?  I am a believer in a set group of starting players, but Morrow is not it seems.  At least not during the season.  Maybe he has a point.  FCD has started well the last few years and faded. Perhaps the first part of the year should be spent trying different mixes and combinations to see what group of players fit.  Then again New England and Houston both have a preferred set of player.  That’s the way I like to go.  It falls back on my maximize the first 11 theory. 

There will certainly be a set of midfielders that are going to start the year and Morrow’s got a nice group of players there.  He needs to find his best combination.  If I had to guess out of the gate it will be Serioux and Ricchetti central with Toja and McCarty as the drifting outside midfielders. My gut just keeps telling me Alvarez is going somewhere else.

2. Who starts at center back?  If no player comes in then it is almost certain it’s Goodson and Moor, but that’s not the question.  The question is if a new player does come in at center back who starts next to him, Goodson or Moor?  It will probably come down to a head to head Goodson vs. Moor battle this spring and will be an important one to watch.

3. Who’s the first choice keeper?  Now here’s a key question.  Keeper more than any other spot is about comfort, communication, and rhythm. Most coaches want their guy to play as much as possible and get in a groove with his defenders.  You don’t want to be swapping net minders all year.  So which will it be, the young with upside Burse or the solid and reliable veteran Sala?

4. Is Blake Wagner ready?  Morrow certainly seems to think so, at least he’s said some things to me that make me think he thinks so.  No offense to Chris Gbandi who can be a heck of a player when focused.  But Morrow scouted Wagner and was a significant factor in him signing with MLS.  He’s a Morrow pick and Morrow is going to let the young man play, and play a lot.

I think the kids got game so I anticipate success, but there will be growing pains.  That’s ok.  Perhaps it’s important to start the season not with who the best is now, but who the best will be at the end of the season.  It would make for a different perspective certainly and with the way things have gone the last few years might be an interesting approach.

Will it work?

Good question.  Another might be how accurate is this prediction.  Hard to say of course, but I think I have a good handle on what direction Morrow is planning to go. Certainly I think most all of us can see the couple areas I have pointed out that need improvement.

So back to the question, will it work?  I believe so.  This is as close as my own personal plan has been to what I think the coach would so.  The only things I would do differently would be in the nature of tactics and formation.  Which would lead to some different personnel choice, but not major ones.  As usual around here it’s going to be an interesting off season.  Stay tuned as the plan takes shape this winter.

What changes would you make?

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